Blue Crane
Grus paradisea
Number Of Mature
Individuals (Regional)
34 000 – 68 000
Regional
Population Trend
Decreasing
2025
Regional Category
Vulnerable
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CONTENTSOverview
Names
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IOC English Name: |
Blue Crane |
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SA & IOC Scientific Name: |
Grus paradisea |
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BirdLife International Taxonomy (scientific name): |
Anthropoides paradiseus |
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Order: |
GRUIFORMES |
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Family: |
Gruidae |
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Species name author: |
Lichtenstein 1793 |
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Afrikaans: |
Bloukraanvoël |
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Sesotho (South Africa): |
Mogolodi |
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Sesotho (Lesotho): |
Mohololi |
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Siswati: |
|
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Zulu: |
iNdwa |
Current Assessment Status
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2025 Regional Category [Criteria] |
VU [A3+4abc] |
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2024 Global Category [Criteria] |
VU [A3cde+4cde] (BirdLife International 2021) |
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Population size (Regional) |
Total population size: 51 000 (range 34 000 – 68 000) (Craig 2024) Mature individuals: 34 170 |
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Population size (Global) |
Total population size: 51 016 (range 34 009 – 68 033) (Namibia Crane Working Group 2019, 2020, Craig 2024) Hanjo Böhme, pers comm, Namibia Crane Working Group 2024) Mature individuals: 34 180 |
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Distribution size (EOO) (Regional) km2 |
1 016 963 (977 991 – 1 056 874) (Lee 2024) |
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Distribution size (EOO) (Global) km2 |
1 890 000 (BirdLife International 2021) |
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Distribution size (AOO) (Regional) km2 |
388 260 (326 720 – 461 888) (Lee 2024) |
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Generation time |
12.5 years (Bird et al. 2020) |
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Status change reason |
Genuine Change in Status & Improved Knowledge |
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Migrant (in the region) |
Local migrant |
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Regional endemic |
No (Near-endemic) |
Historic Listing Information
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2000 Regional Status |
VU [A1acde+2bc] |
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2015 Regional Status |
NT [A2acde] |
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Status change reason (if applicable) |
Genuine Change in Status & Improved Knowledge |
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2015 Population size (Regional) |
25 500 mature individuals |
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2015 Global Status |
VU [A3cde+4cde] |
Reason for Inclusion
Reason for Inclusion in the Assessment
The Blue Crane Grus paradisea is near endemic to the region with a small, isolated and declining population in northern Namibia. Counts in Namibia have consistently been less than 50 individuals since 2007. The Namibian population was assessed as Critically Endangered in 2015 and is at high risk of going extinct (Simmons 2015, Namibia Crane Working Group 2020). The Blue Crane was listed as regionally Vulnerable in 2000 and is currently listed as globally Vulnerable (BirdLife International 2021). The Blue Crane was assessed as Near Threatened on the South African regional Red List (Shaw 2015) based on data which indicated a growing population at the time of the assessment (Hofmeyr 2012). However, this is no longer the case, recent analysis indicates the Blue Crane population is in decline (Craig 2024).
Category Justification
Category Justification
Blue Crane can be assessed on either Criterion A2 (observed decline), A3 (projected future decline) or A4 (both observed and projected decline). It would not be appropriate to list on Criterion A1 (observed decline but reasons understood and ceased), as threats leading to their decline are continuing i.e. powerline collisions, fence entanglements, poisoning (Shaw et al. 2010, van Velden et al. 2016, Shaw et al. 2021, Overberg Crane Group 2022, 2023, Craig 2024). The Blue Crane has a published generation length of 12.5 years (Bird et al. 2020), and population trends are therefore assessed over 38 years.
We used the Coordinated Avifaunal Road Counts (CAR) data and live crane counts from long term Karoo powerline surveys to assess the Regional Red List Status for Blue Crane, using Criterion A4 (past population reduction, projected to continue into future). We used Criterion A4, rather than A2 (population reduction observed over three generations), because the national Blue Crane population trajectory changed from positive to negative in 2010 (Craig 2024) (Figure 1), and this detail gets lost in the trend if assessing over three generations. Drawing from the current population estimates and trends (Craig 2024), we projected what the population estimate was in 2010, relative to the current estimate, and then assuming the population trend continues, we predict what the population estimate will be in three generations, 2010-2047.
An analysis of the summer CAR data indicates that the national population has declined by 39% (95% CI –49 to –27%) over the last 15 years (2010-2025) (Craig unpubl data) (Figure 1). Blue Crane counts are declining mainly in the Overberg, where Blue Crane density is highest. There are also indications that counts have been declining in the Karoo as well, although data is sparse for these CAR precincts (Craig 2024). Another roadcount study describes a 51% (95% CI -18; -71) decline in the Karoo between 2009-2024 (Zuluaga et al. (in prep).
Assuming the observed average annual rate of decline of 2.6% (95% CI –3.3 to –1.8%) between 2010 and 2025 continues, then between 2010 and 2047 (i.e., for 38 years/three generations), the population will decline by a projected 62% (95% CI –49 to –71%). This is based on direct observation of decline in numbers from CAR and live crane counts on powerline surveys in the Karoo (Craig 2024, unpubl data). It must be noted that only Western Cape CAR precincts and Karoo live counts had data up until 2025, with other CAR precinct’s data ceasing between 2016 and 2019, therefore the recent trend is heavily influenced by the Western Cape.
If this were to occur, the Blue Crane would meet the criteria for listing as Endangered (50–80% decline). However, there is considerable uncertainty in the CAR data, and at the lower end of the 95% confidence interval, the Blue Crane would only be listed as Vulnerable. Considering the overall increases in SABAP reporting rates and CAR increases prior to 2010, as well as uncertainty in the CAR data, it is prudent to take a middle ground and list Blue Crane as Vulnerable, in line with the global assessment. A Near-Threatened listing is no longer appropriate, now that the population is declining, and following the precautionary principle (Craig 2024).
The Blue Crane’s Extent of Occurrence (EOO) is 1 890 000 km2 globally (BirdLife International 2021) and 1 016 963 km2 in South Africa (Lee 2024). Area of Occupancy (AOO) in South Africa, is 388 260 km2 (Lee 2024). Therefore, the Blue Crane does not meet the IUCN Red List thresholds to be assessed on Criterion B (EOO <20 000 km2). Given the South African estimated population size of 51 000, and 34 170 mature individuals, the Blue Crane does not meet the criteria to be assessed on Criteria C or D (Small Population size <10 000, <1000 respectively) regionally. A Population Viability Analysis has been done for Blue Crane (Category E), but due to uncertainties in some of the parameters in the model, we do not recommend using this output for predicting the future population trajectory for the purposes of the Red List (Craig 2024).
OPULATION JUSTIFICATION
Population estimates were derived from aerial surveys conducted in the Western Cape wheatlands, Nama Karoo (Craig 2024) and KwaZulu-Natal (Jordan et al. 2021). We conducted winter aerial surveys in the Western Cape wheatlands (Overberg and Swartland) in 2018, using transects/distance sampling (Craig 2024). Using distance modelling, we estimate there to be 25 458 (95% CI 21 883 – 29 618) Blue Cranes in the Overberg and 6072 (5211 – 7076) in the Swartland (Craig 2024). In the Karoo a quadrat design was used because Blue Crane distribution is patchier than the Western Cape, and there were difficulties with estimating distance in flight (Craig 2024). In the Karoo, the total count was 9331 Blue Cranes, and a crude stratified extrapolation gave an estimate of 16 464 individuals (Craig 2024). In the grasslands, the latest Blue Crane population estimate for KwaZulu-Natal was 1963 individuals (Jordan et al. 2021), based on aerial surveys. The last population estimate for the other provinces of the eastern grasslands is from the early 2000s (McCann et al. 2007). Assuming that Blue Crane numbers have on average stayed stable across the grasslands, which seems like a reasonable assumption from the CAR data, we can add the counts from the other provinces from McCann et al. (2007) to the latest KwaZulu-Natal aerial survey estimate to get a total grasslands population of 4000 individuals. Summing the estimates from the Western Cape wheatlands, Nama Karoo and grasslands, we estimate a population of 51 000 (range 34 000 – 68 000) Blue Cranes in South Africa.
Trend Justification
Up until 15 years ago, Blue Crane numbers were increasing. Across all CAR precincts (summer counts), Blue Crane numbers increased by 42% (95% CI 17 – 69%) between 2000 and 2010, however from 2010-2025, the population has declined by 39% (95% CI –49 to –27%) (Figure 1) (Craig 2024). Across the Blue Crane range in South Africa reporting rates for the SABAP increased on average by 6.3% between SABAP1 and SABAP2 (Craig 2024). However, there is evidence of range contraction for Blue Crane, between SABAP1 and SABAP2 (Figure 2). Overall, 22% of Quarter Degree Grid Cells (QDGC) that recorded Blue Crane in SABAP1, didn’t record Blue Crane in SABAP2. This is compared to 18% of QDGCs that recorded Blue Crane in SABAP2 but not SABAP1 i.e. new range. This indicates a net loss in Blue Crane range of 4% between the projects. Loss of range is occurring predominantly in the grasslands, particularly in the Free State and North West Provinces, and in Namibia (Craig 2024) (Figure 2), whereas Blue Crane range has expanded along the west coast and along the western fringes of the Karoo range (Figure 2).
Figure 1: A Generalized Additive Model fitted in poptrend (Knape 2016) for summer counts for all Coordinated Avifaunal Roadcounts precincts combined, between 2000 and 2019. The long-term trend is indicated by the solid black line with the 95% confidence intervals in blue, and the estimates of trend per years as the point, with the vertical lines indicating 95% confidence intervals of the year estimate. Where the line changes colour indicates a significant increase (green)/decline (red) based on the first derivative of the GAM used to derive the trend line from the data. The coloured blocks on the x axis indicate where the trend changes significantly, based on the second derivative. The raw imputed Blue Crane numbers/km are plotted as open circles (Craig unpubl data).
Figure 2: Comparison of Blue Crane reporting rates in SABAP1 vs SABAP2, indicating Quarter Degree Grid Cells (QDGCs) where cranes have never been recorded (never), where they were recorded in SABAP1 but weren’t in SABAP2 (absent) and vice versa (new), and where they were recorded in both projects, the direction of reporting rates from SABAP1 to SABAP2 (down, level or up). QDGCs with fewer than 4 cards in either project are indicated in blue (Craig 2024).
Biology & Ecology
Taxonomy
The most recent phylogenetic study of cranes, using mitochondrial genome sequencing, maintains the Blue Crane in the genus Anthropoides, a monophyletic group containing Blue Crane Anthropoides paradiseus and Demoiselle Crane A. virgo (Krajewski et al. 2010). The International Ornithologists’ Union has Blue Crane listed in the genus Grus (Gill et al. 2024) and has yet to change it to Anthropoides.
Identification
110 cm, 4.9 kg. Sexes are alike. A large, stately terrestrial species, with long tertial feathers forming a ‘train’ trailing behind the bird. South Africa’s national bird. Body plumage silvery bluish grey, becoming darker on upper neck, lower half of head and nape. Feathers of crown and forehead greyish white, while cheeks, ear coverts and nape dark ashy grey, these feathers raised or fluffed during threat displays. Primaries black or slate-grey. Tertials greatly elongated, blackish. Bill short, and flesh-coloured. Eye dark brown. Legs and feet dark grey to black. Chicks are light brown while juveniles are slightly lighter blue-grey than adults, and lack elongated tertials, up until a year from fledging (Allan 2005).
Distribution
Blue Cranes are near endemic to South Africa, with a small, isolated population in and around Etosha National Park in Namibia, and a small population in western Eswatini. The South Africa population can be broadly divided into three subpopulations, the eastern grasslands (approximately 8% of national population), Karoo (c. 31%) and Western Cape wheatlands (c. 61%) (Figure 3) (Craig 2024). The species is a local migrant, moving mainly within their subpopulations and occasionally moving between the subpopulations (Craig 2024).
Figure 3: The South African Blue Crane range (Southern African Bird Atlas Project 2 2022) in relation to vegetation and other land-use types (Department of Environment Forestry and Fisheries 2020), showing the three populations within the metapopulation (Craig 2024).
Ecology
Blue Cranes are dry grassland birds, found in open grassland habitats in the east of South Africa and in the shrubby grasslands of the Nama Karoo (Allan 2005). They are also commonly found in agricultural habitats, especially in the Western Cape wheatlands, but also increasingly in the Karoo, where they are found in large numbers on irrigated lucerne lands (Allan 1993, Craig 2024). In the Western Cape wheatlands they use a matrix of pastures and cereal croplands, moving seasonally between these habitats as food availability and visibility changes throughout the year (Allan 1995). Blue Cranes normally roost in wetlands or shallow dams (Young et al. 2003).
Threats & Conservation
Threats
Blue Crane nesting coincides with when crops are harvested between October and December (Allan 2005). Pairs that choose to nest in newly harvested wheatfields, as opposed to pasture fields, are vulnerable to being disturbed or having their eggs crushed when farmers bring combine harvesters in to collect wheat windrows or balers to bale straw (Bidwell 2004, van Velden et al. 2016). Blue Crane chicks, and sometimes adults, get entangled in barbed-wire fences, which can cause injury, and subsequently death (van Velden et al. 2016). Blue Crane chicks occasionally climb into livestock water troughs to drink, are unable to get out and then drown. For flighted Blue Cranes, collision with powerlines is the primary threat. Craig (2024) surveyed powerlines in the Overberg, Swartland and Karoo and found that Blue Cranes were the most frequently impacted species in all three regions, with collision rates of 0.18 (95% CI 0.13–0.24) cranes/km/year in the Karoo, 0.08 (0.02–0.17) in the Swartland and 0.05 (0.02–0.08) in the Overberg. Monitoring of wind farms indicates that Blue Crane collision mortalities with wind turbines are relatively uncommon (Perold et al. 2020), but the associated powerline infrastructure is an issue for this collision-prone species (Shaw et al. 2010, Shaw et al. 2021, Craig 2024).
In the Western Cape wheatlands farmers supplement their sheep’s diet with grains and concentrates, and farmers are occasionally annoyed by Blue Cranes, as they disturb sheep at troughs and eat the feed (van Velden et al. 2016). Fortunately, targeted poisoning of Blue Cranes happens seldom compared to the past (Allan and Ryan 1996, Verdoorn 2015), farmers are generally either positive towards or tolerant of Blue Cranes (van Velden et al. 2016). However, opportunistic species such as rodents and geese (Spur-winged Plectropterus gambensis and Egyptian Geese Alopochen aegyptiaca) have become numerous and can cause significant crop damage during the planting and growing season (Mangnall and Crowe 2001, 2002, 2003). Poison baits set out for these species may be eaten by Blue Cranes, which are thereby poisoned indirectly. There have been two poisoning events in the Overberg recently (Overberg Crane Group 2022, 2023), it is possible that other poisonings have occurred, that were not reported.
The Western Cape is predicted to get hotter and drier with climate change (Engelbrecht et al. 2009, Engelbrecht et al. 2011, du Plessis and Schloms 2017). This could pose challenges to Blue Cranes, which breed in the summer dry season. In their natural range (grasslands and Karoo), they also breed in summer but here summer is the wet season (South African Weather Service 2023). Hotter and drier summers could put additional pressure on these ground-nesting birds during incubation, making it harder for them to thermoregulate themselves and their eggs (DuRant et al. 2019). A recent study indicates that high temperatures and disturbance negatively impact Blue Crane nesting success in the Overberg (Bouwer 2023). The data points to low breeding success and recruitment being the reason that the Overberg Blue Crane population is declining (Craig 2024). Between 2019 and 2021, the percentage of juveniles in winter flocks was on average 4.0% (range = 2.8–5%) in the Overberg, and 3.6% (3.4–4.0%) in the Swartland (Craig 2024). This is more than two times lower than it was in the Overberg 30 years ago (Allan 1993, Craig 2024).
Conservation Measures Underway
Blue Cranes are mainly found on privately-owned farms and rangelands, and so the key to their conservation lies in good relationships between landowners and conservation agencies to ensure appropriate management of these environments. The African Crane Conservation Programme of the International Crane Foundation/Endangered Wildlife Trust (ICF/EWT) works on many aspects of Blue Crane conservation, including biodiversity stewardship, awareness and environmental education for landowners, local communities and other stakeholders, reducing crane/farmer conflicts and monitoring of crane populations. A long-term study indicates that line marking is effective for reducing Blue Crane collisions (Shaw et al. 2021). The EWT has a strategic partnership with Eskom, working to reduce wildlife incidents on powerlines, including cranes. South African provincial authorities (e.g. CapeNature & Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife) and Overberg Crane Group respond to and assist with issues impacting Blue Cranes, namely poisoning and persecution. Wildlife rehabilitation facilities and vets treat Blue Cranes, where possible, when they are injured. A Population and Habitat Assessment is underway, led by the ICF/EWT and supported by the Conservation Planning Specialist Group, which will result in a comprehensive conservation plan for the species going forward. Blue Cranes are protected by the South African Threatened or Protected Species Regulations (South Africa 2007) and are listed under Appendix II on the CITES list.
Conservation Measures Proposed
- Develop a conservation plan to inform management, research and monitoring.
- Develop a long-term monitoring plan, which includes ensuring that citizen science projects such as the CAR and SABAP continue.
- Improve breeding success in the Western Cape wheatlands through engaging with land-owners to use reduce breeding disturbance and chick mortality in fences and drowning in water troughs.
- Maintain a conservation presence in the landscape to stay abreast of current and emerging threats.
- Continue to mark powerlines to reduce collisions, and route powerlines optimally (namely avoid seasonal waterbodies frequented by roosting cranes).
- Improve crane rehabilitation capacity in the Western Cape where cranes are frequently injured by powerlines, fences and occasionally are poisoned.
- Develop a poison response plan for the Western Cape.
- Monitor impact of renewable energy on Blue Cranes.
- Protect grasslands and Nama Karoo habitats that support Blue Crane populations.
Research Priorities and Questions
- A limitation in doing a Population Viability Analysis for this species is that we have limited data on number of breeding individuals in the population, getting clearer data on this would strengthen population models.
- Breeding monitoring data shows that fledging success is low in the Western Cape (Craig 2024), but another study in the Caledon area of the Overberg indicates that nesting success is similar to a previous study in 2003, when the Blue Crane population was increasing rapidly (Bidwell 2004, Hofmeyr 2012, Bouwer 2023). This may indicate that chick mortality is the cause of lowered breeding success, or that the Caledon region is not indicative of the whole Overberg. Further research and continued monitoring are needed to understand why fledging success is lower.
- In the Overberg and Swartland, minimum till/no till farming has become mainstreamed over the last 10 years (Swanepoel et al. 2017, Strauss et al. 2021). Less soil disturbance should be beneficial for bird species that use agricultural landscapes, including Blue Cranes, but we are unsure how increased reliance on agrochemicals, used with minimum till methods, impacts the species and the ecosystem.
- A long-term experimental study in the Karoo has indicated that line marking on transmission lines is effective for Blue Cranes (Shaw et al. 2021). However, we do not have similarly rigorous research on distribution lines. In addition, line markers appear less effective near seasonal waterbodies, as Blue Cranes come in to roost in low light (Craig 2024). Line markers with LED lights have been developed and deployed by the EWT-Eskom Strategic Partnership to address this, but we do not have rigorous experimental studies to demonstrate that they are effective. A Before-After-Control-Impact study with sufficient statistical power looking at the effectiveness of different types of line markers on distribution lines would be valuable.
Contributors & References
Assessor/s
Christie Anne Craig
Contributors: Jessica Shaw, Kevin Shaw, Lara Jordan
Reviewer/s
Jessica Shaw, Kerryn Morrison, Rich Beilfuss
References
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Mangnall MJ, Crowe TM. 2003. The effects of agriculture on farmland bird assemblages on the Agulhas Plain, Western Cape, South Africa. African Journal of Ecology 41: 266–276.
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Citation
Craig CA 2025. Blue Crane. In: Lee ATK, Rose S, Banda S, Bezeng SB, Maphalala MI, Maphisa DH, Smit-Robinson H (eds), The 2025 Red Data Book of Birds of South Africa, Lesotho and Eswatini. Johannesburg, South Africa: BirdLife South Africa. Available at: https://www.birdlife.org.za/red-list/blue-crane/
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